CRUDE OIL vs PETROL

Bila dengar je harga minyak naik, booooommmm bamm kebaboommm. Masing-masing mula menyediakan 'bullet' untuk dilepaskan kepada makcik jaga stesen minyak, pemimpin negara dan tak ketinggalan student petroleum engineering. Peruncit-peruncit serta mamak-mamak roti canai pun taknak ketinggalan sama nak tumpang glemer cuba menaikkan harga barang keperluan dengan alasan harga minyak naik. Semua salah menyalahkan, yang sangat tak boleh blah tu mak aku salahkan aku pulak. Eceh, belajar pun belum habis macamana aku boleh ade kaitan pulak. Kalau nak cakap pasal isu politik, sorry naik lorry aku tak tahu. Aku masih cuba memahami, dan kemelut politik negara Malaysia ni aku rasa lebih rumit dari calculation Reservoir Simulation aku. So, I'm giving my point based on what I read from other sources bukan dari firasat-firasat aku yang datang dari mimpi. Just untuk additional information kita jer.

Beberapa tahun kebelakangan ini kita selalu dikejutkan dengan kenaikan demi kenaikan harga petrol. Apakah punca utama disebalik kenaikan ini.

Pertama,

Kita tahu bahawa minyak petrol dikenakan cukai, dan nilai cukai selalunya akan bertukar maksimum sekali setahun. Jadi, pada dasarnya ini adalah kos tetap. Dan jumlah ini ialah lebih daripada 60% kos harga petrol/liter bagi unleaded, super dan diesel.

Kedua,

Bagi pemilik stesen petrol, mereka harus mengambil kira kos operasi dan 'profit margin'. Biasanya kos ini hanya lah beberapa % sahaja daripada kos. Oleh itu, jika pemilik stesen mengambil keputusan untuk menggandakan keuntungan operasi, ia hanya akan merubah lebih kurang 1% sahaja daripada jumlah kos.

Ketiga, 

Operating Company atau pengeluar petrol seperti Petronas, BP, Shell, ExxonMobil perlu mengambil kira kos pengangkutan, keuntungan, penapisan, serta lain-lain kos mendapatkan minyak mentah tersebut. Kos ini lah yang selalunya menjadi punca utama naik turun harga petrol dunia.

The question we ask here is "How well do the changes in the cost of oil per barrel translate into the average price per litre of unleaded petrol?" 

Some has took the liberty to compile the Malaysian Petrol price (RM/Litre) against the world crude oil price (USD/Barrel) and US Gas Price (RM/Litre).  In the last few months, the world crude oil has been dropping at a high rate.  The same goes to the US gasoline prices (converted from USD/Gallon to KM/Liter).  

Our own petrol price reduction rate on the other hand has been much slower as you can see the slope was less than the crude oil and US gasoline price.  To be fair, when the world sees an increase in oil price, the Malaysian petrol price has been itching up slowly, to the benefit of the Malaysian people. 

Since the government could not afford to subsidize us, it is only natural for the petrol price to go up.  But since the crude oil price now goes down, shouldn’t we enjoy similar petrol price reduction as the government now subsidize less, or even no more subsidizing?

Anyway, one thing to note is that today’s crude oil price is at when it was in Sept 2007(USD70.94/barrel).  Then, the US gasoline price was RM2.67/litre.  We were at RM1.92/litre.  Today, the Crude Oil is at USD68.22, the US gasoline price is at RM3.12/litre, and our petrol price is at RM2.30/litre. Is our petrol price where it should be without subsidy? The truth is, we dont know how much is our subsidy.  In September 2007, we were paying RM0.75 less than the average Joe in America.  Today, we are paying RM0.82 less.  

Well, these calculations aren’t that accurate anyway.  But one thing to note is that, in 2007, we were subsidized and paying 75 cent less, today, we are subsidized less or no subsidy at all, and paying 82 cent less.  

I am tempted to conclude that the subsidy was all a hot air talk, but then again, these calculations that I made were widely averaged and assumed, so such conclusion has a large margin of error. 

I am interested to see how the Malaysian petrol price will be when the crude oil price drops further, watch this space….